Tuesday, 22 June 2010

The world turned upside down.

As the world prepares for the last games of the qualifying round of the World Cup it's worth noting that something strange is happening in the world of football. First, there's a number of top flight teams missing from the tournament: Croatia, Russia and Egypt (ranked 10-12th in the world) all failed to qualify - allowing space for minnows like Slovakia, Slovenia and Switzerland to take their place on the world stage. (Are countries beginning with an 'S' enjoying some blessing from a higher source?)

Secondly the seeded teams, and particularly Europe's finest, are - with the exception of Holland - doing incredibly badly. Germany, Italy, England, Spain and France all go into the last round of matches needing to win to be certain of qualifying. The first three countries all need to beat teams, who -while on paper are weaker- are currently top of their groups (Ghana, Paraguay and Slovenia). They might scrape through on draws - but that depends on the results of the other matches. Spain faces a harder uphill task - they need to beat top of table Chile - with a 100% record - and hope that Switzerland don't beat Honduras - otherwise there will be three teams with six points and qualification will come down to goal difference, goals scored, results between the teams and then a lottery. France's hopes are even slimmer - they need to beat South Africa, hope that Mexico vs. Uruguay produces a winner and to make up a four-goal goal difference. There are many - especially in Ireland - who think that France shouldn't be there at all. One French player got sent home for dissent against the management - something that may nearly have happened in the England camp too.

It's difficult situation to call. France face an up-mountain battle. Germany will probably scrape it (though I don't want to see Ghana - the only African team with a real hope of qualifying - go down). Spain have a tough battle against an on-form Chile, while England and Italy have been so piss-poor that one wonders if they can summon up a decent game against inspired and optimistic opponents. It could be a last sixteen of minnows - with many historically dominant teams knocked out in the qualifying stages. Does anyone remember the 2002 World Cup which saw South Korea and Turkey get through to the last four? This could be just as unpredictable. What I would bet on is that this World Cup will go to South America - and probably Argentina or Brazil.

Games to watch in this round? Denmark vs. Japan - a straight play off for second place in Group E - where Cameroon were widely fancied as the second qualifiers. And, Brazil vs Portugal: simply two of the most entertaining teams in the world thrown head to head in the qualifying stages.

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